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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still